Bear Case
+12%
AI capex pullback, rates spike materially, VKTX Phase 3 failure, UK macro deterioration.
Base Case — Primary
+38–42%
Earnings momentum holds across core positions. VKTX partial catalyst. Stable macro environment into year-end.
Bull Case
+55–62%
VST re-rates to CEG multiple. PLTR sustains 80% revenue growth. VKTX acquired or Phase 3 clean read.
Allocation
100%
Deployed
Bull-Case Return vs Portfolio Weight
Portfolio Positions
10 of 10 shownRisk Register
| Risk Factor | Positions | Severity | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI capex slowdown | VST, PLTR | High | Signed PPAs provide revenue floor regardless of capex sentiment |
| VKTX Phase 3 failure | VKTX | High | 8% weight only — portfolio drawdown capped at 4% on full loss |
| Rates spike materially | GS, BARC | Medium | Combined 13% weight; both benefit from elevated rates short-term |
| UK political disruption | RR., BAE, BARC | Medium | SMR and defence programmes hold cross-party political support |
| GLP-1 competitive entry | LLY | Low | Manufacturing moat buys 2–3 years before meaningful share erosion |
| PLTR multiple compression | PLTR | Medium | Revenue +85% YoY makes momentum the thesis — not the 206x P/E |
Review Triggers
VKTX
Act immediately on Phase 3 interim data, expected Q3 2026. Binary event — no holding through a failure print. On clean read or acquisition approach, consider adding.
Binary
VST
Trim if forward P/E re-rates above 25× without a corresponding earnings acceleration. Nuclear PPA pricing compression is the leading warning signal.
Trim
PLTR
Trim if Q2 2026 revenue growth decelerates below 60% YoY. Government contract slowdown is the earliest observable warning indicator.
Trim
RR.
Add on any macro-driven pullback not related to fundamentals. SMR programme milestones are discrete positive re-rating catalysts.
Add
FTSE
Re-evaluate UK weight if FTSE 100 breaches 11,000 before September. Rotation risk increases at full-value territory.
Review